A Must-Read for Beginners! What Will Bitcoin’s Price Be in 2025? Predicting Bitcoin’s Future!

In March 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) broke through the 10 million yen mark per BTC, reaching a new all-time high.

With related trends like NFTs, the metaverse, Web3, and the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF gaining momentum, what does the future hold for Bitcoin?

In this article, we’ll explore:

• Price predictions from notable figures
• Factors influencing Bitcoin’s price
• International developments

to assess Bitcoin’s future potential.

What Will Happen to Bitcoin’s Price in the Future?

In March 2024, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high. But what does 2025 hold for Bitcoin’s price? Let’s look at the predictions and insights from notable analysts.

S2F Model Predicts Over 3 Million

PlanB, the creator of the famous Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, predicts that Bitcoin’s price will exceed $1 million in 2025.

The S2F model measures the scarcity and value of assets like precious metals (gold and silver). It is calculated as S2F= Stock (existing supply)/Flow (annual production)

Assets with high scarcity, like gold, have a low production rate relative to their existing supply, which helps them maintain their value. Bitcoin’s “halving” event in May 2020 reduced the rate of new Bitcoin production, suggesting that the price will rise in the medium to long term.

The S2F model has previously made accurate predictions, making it popular in media and on social platforms. PlanB’s account on X (formerly Twitter) has over 1.98 million followers as of July 2024.

However, the S2F model is not infallible. For example, in 2021, it incorrectly predicted that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 by year-end.

Peter Brandt’s Price Peak Prediction

Renowned trader Peter Brandt, with over 40 years of experience, predicts that Bitcoin’s price peak will occur in September 2025.

Brandt believes that Bitcoin’s halving events have historically occurred roughly midway between the start and peak of bull markets. Based on this cycle, he predicts the next bull market peak will be between late August and early September 2025.

Possibility of a “Crypto Winter”

Not all forecasts are bullish.

Even Peter Brandt acknowledges a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already reached its peak. He notes that if Bitcoin fails to surpass its all-time high of $73,679 (recorded on March 14, 2024) and drops below $55,000, it could indicate a pattern of exponential decay.

* Exponential Decay: A process where the rate of decrease is proportional to the current amount.

Additionally, Swiss banking giant UBS warned in a 2022 memo to clients that Bitcoin’s appeal could diminish. Factors like rising global interest rates and regulatory pressures might prevent Bitcoin from being a reliable “store of value.”

While UBS didn’t provide a specific price prediction, they suggested the potential for a prolonged “crypto winter” where prices might not recover for years.

These diverse predictions highlight the uncertainty of Bitcoin’s future. Whether Bitcoin experiences a bull run or a prolonged downturn, staying informed and understanding market trends will help you make better investment decisions.

Factors Affecting Bitcoin’s Price

To understand Bitcoin’s future potential, it is crucial to know the key factors that influence its price. These factors include expanding use cases, security, regulations, and halving events.

1. Payment Adoption

Bitcoin is increasingly being adopted for payment purposes worldwide. Examples include:

• Burger King in Venezuela
• Coca-Cola Amatil (an Australian bottling company), which began accepting Bitcoin payments in 2020

In Japan, some major retailers, such as electronics stores, accept Bitcoin for small payments.

If Bitcoin becomes more convenient for payments, demand is likely to increase, leading to more businesses accepting Bitcoin as a payment method. This could positively impact Bitcoin’s price. However, Bitcoin still faces a scalability issue where high demand can lead to delays and high transaction fees. To resolve this, improvements to Bitcoin’s processing capacity are necessary.

2. Halving Events

Bitcoin’s price is significantly influenced by halving events, which occur approximately every four years. During a halving, the reward for mining new Bitcoin is cut in half.

• If mining rewards no longer justify the effort and costs, some miners may exit the market, potentially lowering Bitcoin’s price.
• Conversely, reduced supply can increase Bitcoin’s value over time.

Historically, halving events have contributed to Bitcoin’s price increases. The fourth halving took place in April 2024. After the previous halving in May 2020, Bitcoin’s price surged to over 10.2 million yen per BTC within a year.

In March 2024, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of 11 million yen per BTC.

3. Regulatory Changes

Regulations significantly affect Bitcoin’s price. For example:

• In 2021, China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, banned cryptocurrency-related businesses, causing a sharp drop in the market.
• In February 2022, both the U.S. and Russia considered stricter regulations:
  • The U.S. viewed cryptocurrencies as a national security issue.
  • Russia proposed defining cryptocurrencies as “currency equivalents” rather than digital financial assets. This positive development temporarily boosted prices.

In 2023, Hong Kong introduced a licensing system for individual crypto trading. In June 2023, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) began accepting license applications, forcing unlicensed companies to exit the market.

4. Impact of Bitcoin ETFs

In February 2021, the first spot Bitcoin ETF was listed in Canada. Bitcoin ETFs are exchange-traded funds designed to track Bitcoin’s price, making it possible to invest in Bitcoin through traditional stock exchanges.

Many investors prefer ETFs as a way to invest in Bitcoin without holding the asset directly. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs was met with enthusiasm.

In October 2021, the first Bitcoin futures ETF was approved in the U.S. In January 2024, the U.S. approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs, and trading began on the:

• New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)
• Nasdaq
• Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) BZX

The first day of trading saw a volume of $4.6 billion (about 670 billion yen). The second day added another $3.1 billion, totaling $7.7 billion (about 1.1 trillion yen).

In contrast, Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) announced in December 2019 that cryptocurrency ETFs cannot be formed or sold. As of February 2022, cryptocurrency ETFs, including Bitcoin ETFs, remain unapproved in Japan.

These factors illustrate that Bitcoin’s price is influenced by various developments in adoption, regulation, and market dynamics. Keeping an eye on these trends can help you make informed investment decisions.

Future of Bitcoin Security

Bitcoin is widely regarded as having very high security, even in an online environment. This is primarily due to the inherent security of the blockchain technology that Bitcoin employs.

Why Blockchain Ensures High Security

Blockchain serves as a data storage system, where processing is distributed across multiple terminals. Even if one data source is compromised, numerous other nodes can replace it. Unless the core of the blockchain system itself is destroyed, it is nearly impossible to carry out fraud or malicious activities.

Furthermore, Bitcoin transactions can be tracked through the blockchain, and no transaction is approved without mutual verification and cooperation. The system simply will not function unless these checks are met.

As a result, blockchain combines data-sharing capabilities with robust online security, making it highly resistant to hacking and cyberattacks.

Quantum Computing and the Risk of Decoding Private Keys

Bitcoin’s security relies heavily on encryption and the use of private keys. Under current conditions, a traditional computer would take billions of years to decrypt these keys. However, developments in quantum computing have raised concerns.

In October 2019, Google announced a breakthrough in developing a quantum computer that surpasses conventional supercomputers. This quantum computer demonstrated “quantum supremacy” by solving a calculation in just 3 minutes and 20 seconds—a task that would take the most powerful supercomputer, Summit, around 10,000 years to complete.

If quantum computers can achieve such rapid calculations, current encryption methods could become obsolete. In theory, a third party could derive a private key from a public key, potentially compromising all Bitcoin holdings.

However, experts like Vitalik Buterin, the founder of Ethereum, argue that practical applications for quantum computing are still far off. Additionally, technologies like quantum key distribution (QKD) are being developed to counter these potential threats.

Future Outlook

Security measures for cryptocurrencies must be robust and continually evolving. The growth of the cryptocurrency market parallels advancements in online technology. While developments like quantum computing pose potential threats to blockchain security, the system is still in development, and more secure blockchains are being introduced.

In the case of a cyberattack, not only could the value of cryptocurrency assets be lost, but the future of cryptocurrency itself could be jeopardized. Therefore, as online technology advances, blockchain security is also expected to improve significantly.

In conclusion, while potential threats exist, the continuous development of blockchain technology and security measures will likely keep Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies resilient against evolving risks.

Summary

Bitcoin, which reached a new all-time high in 2024, continues to show potential for future growth.

However, Bitcoin’s price is highly influenced by global demand and regulations, making it a risky investment. While many notable analysts have bullish predictions, it’s important not to take these forecasts at face value. Make sure to independently research Bitcoin’s technology, market news, and related developments.

If you’re interested in learning more about Bitcoin price trends, refer to “Identify the Best Time to Buy Bitcoin! How to Read and Analyze Charts.”